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The new mobility of young people and the anonymity of city life reduced the pressures toward traditional behavior exerted by the family and community. In factory employment, the individual stood on his own accomplishments. Urban life stripped the family of many functions in production, consumption, recreation, and education. It is impossible to be precise about the various causal factors, but apparently many were important. The new ideal of the small family arose typically in the urban industrial society. Much of the following summary applies even today: Frank Notestein, its first director, outlined what had transpired by mid-20th century, including the main causes for the changing family size, in two papers dealing with what is now known as the “demographic transition” (Notestein 19). Perhaps the most comprehensive and profound explorations were conducted by a team of scholars at Princeton University’s Office of Population Research. A number of French, British and American social scientists set out to map and explain this change. Why do so many countries have below replacement fertility?Įarly in the 20th century, it became obvious that family size was declining in countries experiencing substantial industrial and urban growth. Since the middle of the 20th century, childbearing has declined by 50 percent: 50 to 60 years ago women in developed and developing countries combined had on average 5 children, but now the world average is about 2.5 children per woman. In fact, contemporary fertility around the globe is lower than it has ever been. The main clusters are in East Asia, Southern Europe, the German-speaking countries of Western Europe, and all the former socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe ( Table 1). Low-fertility countries are generally grouped into clusters.
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between 1.8 and 2.1 the other three-quarters have really low fertility, below 1.8 births per woman.
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Of these, one-quarter have TFRs close to the replacement level, i.e. with a total fertility rate (TFR) below 2.1 births per woman. Go here to read the original article.Īccording to the most recent UN estimates (United Nations 2017), almost one half of the world’s population lives in countries with below replacement fertility (BRF), i.e. Editor's Note: The following article has been reprinted with permission from N-IUSSP.